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A game with high variance produces large wins infrequently. Basically the more casino offers you complete, the more variance plays into your hands and the more profit you should make.
Another term that we need to consider is expected value or estimated value. You will also see this written as EV.
Every offer has an expected value EV rating. This helps us determine whether an offer is worth completing or not. If you complete an offer a few times, your actual profit will vary but should closely match EV over time.
In order to calculate the EV of an offer, we consider the long term maths rather than short term wins and losses.
To help with this long-term mindset, we need to work out if an offer is worth completing by calculating the EV. However, in the long-term, we can use the expected value to turn the maths to our advantage.
As you may know, every casino game has a house edge. This is shown as a percentage and ranges from blackjack 0.
This figure can be used to calculate the return to player RTP which is basically the flip side of the house edge.
As we looked at above, RTP is the percentage of money a player should expect to win back in the long term. You may be wondering how you can work out the expected value of a matched betting casino offer.
Whilst you can complete these calculations manually, I recommend you use a service like Bonus Accumulator. Their advanced software calculates the expected value for you making your job much much easier.
As I say, Bonus Accumulator calculates all this information for you and shows you which offers to complete and how much you should expect to make.
One of the best tips to consider before you start with matched betting casino offers is to apply bankroll management.
This is especially important for more high-risk offers. Plus in doing so, you gain the knowledge of how to approach these offers.
You will gain some experience as you will read about the big wins but also the run of losses and meltdowns. These same people go through long periods of losses.
Best to avoid high risk IMO. They are all fairly straightforward. Profit Accumulator provides info on how to play roulette and blackjack.
Most casinos have free demo versions if you want to practice. Blackjack is a game of strategy and the decisions you make are based on the cards you and the dealer are dealt.
In this instance, you just look at a strategy card for the type of blackjack you are playing and play the hand as the card instructs.
The individual offer instructions on Profit Accumulator usually links to the blackjack strategy card. Roulette is very easy to play, no strategy card for this is needed.
Slots are really simple to play. Just make sure the slot is set to minimum stakes and maximum lines. Some casinos load the game with stakes loaded higher than the minimum, so always get in the habit of lowering stakes before you start spinning.
Slots are my personal favourite because you can set the slot on autoplay and not have to pay it any attention, therefore be doing something else at the same time.
Different people have different ways of playing offers. How you attempt them will depend on a variety of factors such as your tolerance towards risk, the size of your bank etc.
My advice is to stay within your comfort zone and attempt offers that you are comfortable with. Profit Accumulator recommends minimum stakes and maximum lines as the way to play the casino slot offers.
If wagering real money I always play minimum stakes and maximum stakes. The more spins I have the more likely I am to hit a bonus round.
Bonus rounds are typically where you hit the bigger wins. Although not always and the payouts do vary from slot to slot. This can result in big wins.
If I get lucky and hit an early win and it seems more likely I might get something from completing the bonus I might play the rest of the wagering out on minimum stakes.
Many more than I possibly list. These are one of my favourite casino offers. The qualifying bet typically costs a loss of around p and you have a very good chance of profiting from free spins.
Some offers give free spins per goal in one game, but others such as Coral and Ladbrokes, have been known to give free spins away on a range of games for just one qualifying bet and with no wagering on the free spins.
Every free spin is worth taking. One of my first decent wins was with Sky Vegas. As you can see, I have only shown screenshots for risk-free and low-risk casino offers.
Some people play every offer that gives them a mathematical edge with a positive expected value. Others, myself included, are a little more choosy.
This is a key factor as it means you can leave the slot running and get on with other tasks at the same time. Or leave it on mute in the background while watching TV or something.
Some casino offers will actually show you how much you have wagered in a visual form. One solution is to use a click or tally counter app.
Quick and easy to download on your phone and really simple to use, just click every time you spin or play a hand.
If at all possible play the slots on autoplay and mute the sound. This saves time and also stops you becoming emotionally involved in the visual and sound effects that make slot games more interesting and enticing to play.
Open a new email address just for Casino offers. Some casinos send loads of offers, most of which you will want to ignore.
Complete the offers within a good time. I always aim to complete offers as soon as possible after starting. It would not be a good idea to start an offer and risk forgetting to complete wagering within the set period and risk losing all bonus funds.
Some casinos will allow you to play more than 1 slot game at a time, so for example at Ladbrokes, I wagered an offer playing these two high RTP slots, Golden Tour and Wild Gambler on my laptop.
As well as the estimated value of the offer, there are a couple of other factors I personally consider before deciding whether to do an offer or not.
We are doing these offers to make money, so obviously, the amount of time we spend doing the offers is a factor. Some offers might involve a casino game that requires your attention, such as Blackjack.
This is quite a slow-paced game compared to spinning on a slot machine. While this might be fine for a quick and easy risk-free offer.
It might make another offer that involves a bit more time and attention, such as playing blackjack or an offer with a fair bit of wagering not so worthwhile.
I personally am not interested in attempting an average expected value offer if there is no upside of keeping a big win.
In time you will learn what slots are best for you. Typically its best to go for the very highest RTP slot you can for the offer.
This will be named in the Profit Accumulator offer instructions. However, sometimes a particular slot can be a little time-consuming due to often hitting a relatively low paying bonus round too often and therefore stopping the reels spinning each time.
Some slots such as Ted, stop the autoplay when you hit a bonus round so you lose track of how many spins have spun. You need to check it every so often.
Loopholes are generally casino offers shared in the Loopholes forum thread at Profit Accumulator. These are a slightly more advanced type of advantage play.
You will need to read the instructions and comments posted in the forum to work out what to do.
They are not advertised specifically by Profit Accumulator. What strategies work changes over time and there are risks the loophole could be closed at any moment.
In order to calculate the EV of casino offers which require you to bet with your own money in order to receive a bonus, it is helpful to break it down into two parts.
There are two simple formulas to calculate the above. Low risk offers generally consist of wagering a certain amount in order to receive a bonus with low wagering or a number of free spins.
We need to know the following to calculate the EV:. Different casino games have a different house edge. For example, blackjack has around a 0.
The house edge of a slot depends on which one you are playing. First, we need to calculate how much it will cost us to qualify for the bonus.
In this example we get:. We know that no wagering on winnings is required so our bonus wagering is the value of the free spins.
The more casino offers you do, the more profit you can expect to make on average and so you should be able to build up a good-sized bank over time to cover any losing streaks.
That said, if the expected value of the offers are positive, you will end up in profit over time and so it is a case of trusting the EV and having a big enough bankroll to see out the losing streaks.
Often, one big win can put you back in profit. The standard EV formula is inaccurate when applied to high-risk casino offers or offers with wagering above x1.
This is because the formula assumes that you will complete the wagering every time you play the offer. However, when there is a chance of busting out before completing the wagering, in order to calculate a near-accurate EV, you must simulate playing the offer many times.
This would be close to impossible to do manually and so a casino calculator is needed to perform thousands of simulations.
Of course, this would be virtually impossible to do manually and so you need to use a simulator similar to the one available to Profit Squad members.
The advanced casino calculator at Profit Squad was developed specifically for casino offers and is able to determine the EV of almost any casino bonus or free spin offer by using a number of variables which are input by the user.
The advanced casino calculator will not only determine the Expected Value of any casino offer but also the chance of profit, the average wagering, the average time to complete the wagering, the EV per hour and more.
Simple things like changing the size of your stake when wagering your cash or bonus can have a huge effect on the Expected Value, as can the game you play and a number of other variables.
There are many members of Profit Squad who are extremely experienced in high-risk casino offers and are willing to help others out.
All Profit Squad members get access to our private Discord channel which is a place to discuss matched betting, strategies, offers and more in real-time.
Your email address will not be published. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.
Skip to content. Team Casino Trial. This is called variance. The idea is that if you keep attempting profitable offers then over a long period of time your winnings will outweigh your losses and you'll be in profit.
Each offer will have an "expected value" or "ev", which is the amount you'll expect to win each time you attempt the offer. So how do you work out if an offer is profitable?
And more importantly, how do you work out how much it's worth? It's actually really easy! All you need to do is calculate the EV estimated value.
EV expected value is a term you'll see thrown around a lot when you start hitting the casino offers. House edge in laymans terms means "how much edge the casino has over us", which can vary depending on which game you play.
Obviously the odds are always in the casino's favour and so they have a slight edge on every game, but some more so than others.
The three most popular games are Blackjack, Roulette and Slots. Below is an average list of the edge. As you can see from the table Blackjack has the lowest house edge and so is the best game to play whenever available, followed by roulette, and then slots.
You'll notice underneath each house edge is a number followed by "RTP". For every bet you place, this is the amount of your stake you'll receive back in theory.
This is of course in theory and the actual amount you'd receive back varies, but as you can see the odds are clearly in the casinos favour.
If you're playing roulette and getting an RTP of Low Risk offers are the most common offer from the bookmakers. That's why these offers are classed as low risk as they don't require you to wager a HUGE amount, and the risk can be lowered even further by doing small spins such as 20p or 25p to balance out the variance.
Simple right? You can always put it in the equation long hand just to double check too:. The low risk offers aren't completely risk free and it is possible for some people to go on a "losing streak".
Because of this we suggest that you have a certain amount of money, just incase. With casino offers the bookie or casino are much more in control of the value they are giving away.
Overall the online casinos probably profit because many people will not play the highest RTP casino game possible, and also it will entice some people to play in the casino for real.
Some Matched Bettors even over spin after an offer so they gain value their too. I was still gubbed, across both the Casino and Vegas platforms.
I was also gubbed from Ladbrokes Casino offers, again, at times I had done some extra spins if I had attempted a lot of offers.
Also, mug betting immediately reduces the expected value of the offer, whether you win or not, because in the long run, you can expect to be worse off.
In my experience mug betting in a casino does not prevent you from being gubbed in the sports section of a bookie. Every month I do at least some Matched Betting.
Bearing in mind I have been Matched betting well over 1 year before I started to produce income reports. When I started Matched Betting, I mostly attempted sports-related offers.
Each month is different so have a look through a few of my income reports to see where the money is made.
I break down the earnings into the different offer types I attempt. Some of the reports also include other easy ways to make money on a monthly basis.
The risk-free casino offers and low-risk casino offers are potentially worthwhile ways to make extra money on a monthly basis.
Medium and high-risk casino offers are a different ball game. Potentially profitable in the long-term, but certainly likely to cause losses, possibly significant losses in the case of high-risk casino offers and are probably best avoided by the vast majority of people looking to earn some extra money.
If you have any experiences to share your attempts at casino offers or any questions, please comment below. By using this form you agree with the storage and handling of your data by this website.
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This blog post takes a look at how you can profit from these types of online casino bonuses. Casino Offer Sign-ups These can be found in their own category within the Profit Accumulator Offers section of the site.
Profit Accumulator Reloads Reload offers are offers that entice existing customers to continue playing even after they have signed up.
What Is Wagering? Wagering is the number of times you have to play through the money or bonus funds. The higher the Expected Value the more you might expect to win.
What is RTP? The lower the RTP, the more profit the casino is making from the player. Along with risk-free casino offers, these make up the bulk of the offers I undertake.
High-Risk Casino Offers Profit Accumulator does not advertise these offers, they are high-risk and best to be avoided. Once you get used to all 3 casino games, they are really easy to play.
How to Play the Casino offers Different people have different ways of playing offers. Minimum Stakes Maximum Lines Profit Accumulator recommends minimum stakes and maximum lines as the way to play the casino slot offers.
Does it have autoplay? Of Spins Or Hands Played Some casino offers will actually show you how much you have wagered in a visual form.
If you overspin you risk losing value from the offer. Casino Offer Tips If at all possible play the slots on autoplay and mute the sound.
This is more relevant to slot games that involve a lot of wagering. I also loaded the Golden Tour slot on my phone and had that playing at the same time too.
Not all casinos will allow you to do this. Other factors to consider If a Casino Offer Is Worth Doing As well as the estimated value of the offer, there are a couple of other factors I personally consider before deciding whether to do an offer or not.
Live casino games can be even slower still. Does The Offer Cap Winnings? You might find some offers cap winnings to quite low amounts, e.
If its free spins that take less than a couple of minutes then I very well might. What are loopholes? Before you start spinning on slots always make sure the stakes are set to minimum.
Should you, therefore, mug bet casino offers? Here are some recent earnings, bearing in mind these offers take very little time.
Conclusion The risk-free casino offers and low-risk casino offers are potentially worthwhile ways to make extra money on a monthly basis.
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